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Sixty Percent of National Retailers and Investors Predict it will take Longer than a Year for Pricing to Reach Equilibrium Printer Friendly Version
 

Jones Lang LaSalle's ReCon Retail Sector Sentiment Survey Indicates Cap Rates Expected to Increase 100 bps from 2007 Market Peaks
ICSC, LAS VEGAS, May 21, 2008 Sixty percent of retailers, investors, developers and lenders surveyed at the International Council of Shopping Centers' (ICSC) conference in Las Vegas expect the market to take more than 12 months to regain pricing equilibrium.  The Retail Sector Sentiment survey conducted by Jones Lang LaSalle, found that on average the 120 respondents thought it would take14 months to fully recover.

"Real estate is a cyclical business and we're already seeing the market moving as retailers at this show really want to get deals done," said Greg Maloney, CEO and President of Jones Lang LaSalle Retail. "Many want to cut to the chase and execute a lease now as they understand that some of the most attractive opportunities are presenting themselves right now."

Of the retailers surveyed, which on average represent 1,073 stores, 61% expect to add retail locations this year, while 27% indicated no change expected, and 12.1% expect store closings. Of those expecting increases, the largest percentage, 24%, have between 5 and 10 new locations earmarked for 2008.

Addressing sales expectations for 2008 compared with last year, 55% of retailers (which comprised approximately a third of the total respondents) expect same-store sales to either stay flat or rise by up to 5%. Approximately 15% expected sales to drop and 30% expect sales will stay flat.

Capital Markets Outlook
Turning to investment expectations, 95% of investors and developers surveyed expect cap rates to rise from the market peaks of mid- 2007, with the average movement projected to rise an average of one percent (109 bps.)

"We have 32 shopping centers on the market today and even though there has been a rise in cap rates, we have the good fortune that our sellers recognize they can still sell at 10 to 20 year historic high returns," said Jim Koury, co-lead and Managing Director of Jones Lang LaSalle's retail investment sales team.  "There are plenty of deals that were put under contact in the first-half of the year that won't show until the later half of the year."

When questioned about the amount of equity capital planned for retail investment compared with 2007 levels, 37% indicated their amount of retail investment would not change this year, while 22% indicated an increase of up to 20% flowing into the sector.

"We see an increase in activity from the private investor sector looking to purchase retail assets," added Larry Krasner, co-lead and Managing Director of Jones Lang LaSalle's retail investment sales team. "In today's market, there is more Class B and C product on the market than institutional quality real estate and that opens up opportunities for private investors. They can come up with 30-35% on a B property and still net a 7.5-8.5% return. There is a bifurcation in product pricing with institutional investors remaining active and more aggressive on the Class A product."

As a final note, Jones Lang LaSalle also found that business strategies have been adapted due to concerns of an economic recession.  Approximately 35% said they would exercise cost containment measures while 17% are cutting back on expansion plans. An even larger percentage of respondents, 25%, are increasing investment on distressed properties and another 25% are increasing their marketing activities to attract greater deal volume this year.

"The survey shows that in the current economic climate both retailers and owners are treading carefully and adapting their strategies accordingly," said Mr. Maloney.  "Institutional investors, on the other hand, are taking a wait and see approach and are analyzing the fundamentals before undertaking any bullish activity."

Capital Markets Group
Jones Lang LaSalle's Capital Markets Group is composed of a broad range of real estate investment debt and equity specialists, and corporate finance experts, working on all property types and in all the key markets on behalf of major institutional and local investors and developers, as well as corporations.  The firm's Capital Markets professionals are highly skilled at pinpointing and tailoring the right capital solutions for each of these client's needs.  The Investment Sales teams assist investors in developing and executing asset recapitalization strategies.  The firm's Real Estate Investment Banking experts raise debt and joint venture equity for investors and developers.  The Corporate Finance professionals help corporations develop and execute strategies that bridge their occupancy, capital deployment and financial reporting objectives for their facility portfolios.  Collectively, the Capital Markets Group handled nearly $82 billion in annual transaction volume in 2007.

Jones Lang LaSalle Retail
In the United States, Jones Lang LaSalle Retail is the largest third-party shopping center manager with a 50 million-square-foot portfolio of more than 100 regional malls, strip centers, power centers, lifestyle centers, ground-up development projects, mixed-use centers and transportation terminals across 28 states. Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL), the only real estate money management and services firm named to Forbes magazines "400 Best Big Companies", has a portfolio of 1.2 billion square feet of property under management worldwide, including more than 600 shopping centers on four continents. For more information on Jones Lang LaSalle Retail, visit www.jllretail.com.





Contact:  Brooke Houghton
Phone:  +1 312 228 2387
Email:  brooke.houghton@am.jll.com
 
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